Wednesday, March 11th, 2009

By J.R. Claeys

This morning we talked with a polling firm in San Salvador to find out just how close this election is going to be. I've taken a stats class or two in my lifetime so I'm skeptical of the results of a survey conducted face-to-face across a mountainous and impoverished country. But it will likely be close.

The question is, how will the people react on the losing side of a close and hotly contested election in a country that has experienced so much politically-motivated violence?

It is likely many will not accept the results. Accusations of fraud have been part of the elections since prior to the civil war in 1972. It is difficult to converse with anyone from the FMLN without hearing tales of fraud happening all over the country. No one can tell you specifics, but they will tell you it's happening like it's Gospel. And always directed at their party.

Today we also visited the party headquarters of the two parties, ARENA and FMLN. Disclaimer: I don't have pictures of the ARENA visit due to the office closing over the lunch hour. I may have photos from a visit with party leaders on Friday. I have no preference in this election. I am here as an impartial international elections observer to verify the rules are followed.

This is a caricature of the ARENA candidate who is a former head of the National Police. It says "Vote With Knowledge: No Votes For The Police."

Speaking of FMLN. Let it never be said the left doesn't have a sense of humor. In my last post I mentioned the Simpson's caricature and several of you have emailed asking to see it. I haven't seen the billboard since coming in yesterday, but I did find a flyer while I was speaking to the historian today. It is posted here.

El Salvador has a rich history. Sadly much of it is violent and painful. The elections are closely tied to the struggles of the civil war and the two parties are largely the same ones that fought that war. In the late 1980's, in the middle of the war, the government sent out death squads to silence the opposition, or to "disappear" them as the locals say.

Those killed included Jesuit Priests. Today we visited the site of the slayings of six priests and two others at the rectory where they slept. It is a heart-wrenching atrocity that was too common during the war. A shrine to Archbishop Oscar Romero, who was assassinated during Mass in 1980, is also located at the site.

Today, El Salvador relives their war during every election cycle. The past is brought to bear on the parties, who are tied to the war forever. To create a peace the military and police are denied the right to vote. It is a fragile system with many imperfections.

Tomorrow we begin training for the election process. I'll describe what it is we do as elections observers if I have time to blog tomorrow night.

» Photo Gallery: Elections Observation Mission